The recent wave of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump is having unexpected consequences for the UK economy that could benefit mortgage borrowers and prospective homebuyers. Rather than driving up inflation as initially feared, economic experts now suggest these trade measures might actually help bring UK interest rates down further and faster than anticipated.

Tariffs creating “Disinflationary pressure”

Megan Greene, who sits on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which determines the base rate, recently told Bloomberg TV that Trump’s tariffs “Actually represent more of a disinflationary risk than an inflationary risk” for the UK economy. This contradicts the conventional wisdom that trade barriers typically increase prices.

So why is that? As Chinese and European exporters find themselves locked out of the US market due to tariffs of up to 145%, they are likely to ‘dump’ their excess stock in other countries, such as the UK, at substantial discounts.

Greene says this will push prices down, benefitting British consumers and potentially accelerating interest rate cuts.

And adding to that downward inflationary pressure, the pound has recently surged to near a three-year high against the dollar amid growing investor alarm over Trump’s trade policies.

The IMF’s bullish rate cut forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest economic assessment, has come to a similar conclusion. Despite predicting that UK inflation will be the highest among advanced economies this year at 3.1% (largely due to higher energy and water bills), it expects this to be only a “temporary phenomenon” that won’t prevent further rate reductions.

In fact, the IMF forecasts three more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025, following the quarter-point cut to 4.5% made back in February. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas has suggested that the base rate is likely to come down to 3.75% but could ultimately settle at around 3% in the longer term.

Money market expectations for base rate

The money markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Bank of England’s next meeting on May 8th, which would bring the base rate down to 4.25%. In addition, with the UK’s growth forecast being revised down from 1.6% to 1.1%, the Bank may be forced, in order to stimulate growth, to make three further cuts by the end of the year.

What this means for mortgages

For mortgage holders and homebuyers, these economic developments point to a more favourable interest rate environment over the coming months:

  1. Fixed-rate mortgages should continue to come down, at least in the short to medium term, as lenders price in the expected series of Bank of England rate cuts.
  2. Tracker and variable-rate mortgages will see more immediate benefits as the base rate is reduced throughout the year.
  3. Remortgaging activity is likely to accelerate as homeowners take advantage of improving rates.
  4. First-time buyers could find their affordability improving as mortgage rates ease, offsetting any increases in house prices.

Longer-term implications

While the immediate effect of trade tensions is disinflationary, Greene has warned that Trump’s trade war is causing large-scale disruption to supply chains, which is likely to increase production costs and could well stoke inflation in the longer term.

It means that while we’re likely to see interest rates continue their downward trajectory in 2025, it might not be an entirely smooth path, as the Bank of England’s MPC will need to balance supporting economic growth whilst ensuring inflation returns to its 2% target and then remains there.

For mortgage holders, this highlights the importance of considering both the immediate opportunities from falling rates and longer-term planning for potential volatility in the global economy.

To learn more about your mortgage options, you can reach our team on 0800 980 8777 or email info@privatefinance.co.uk.

Share this article: